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Professional Experience Research Consulting
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Research Interests
My general areas of research
include:
- Statistics
- Probability models, including
environmental models
- Operations research: decision analysis,
resource allocation, forecasting, inventory control
- Stochastic optimal control
I have worked on a variety of
applications of probability and statistics, including agent-based models of
land-use dynamics, optimal buy/sell rules for commodities, generation of random
probability, and work for organizations such as IBM (Internet ad targeting),
Argo Data Resources (teller staffing, attrition risk modeling, and customer
value models) and ABC TV (survey analysis of pilot shows). Below are some research oriented
publications.
Environmental and land-use modeling
Bridging the gaps between design and use: developing
tools to support environmental management and policy, (with B.S. McIntosh, C. Giupponi, A. Voinov, C. Smith,
K.B. Matthews, M. Monticino, M.J. Kolkman, N. Crossman, M. van Ittersum, D.
Haase, A. Haase, J. Mysiak, J.C.J. Groot, S. Sieber, P. Verweij, N. Quinn, P.
Waeger, N. Gaber, D. Hepting, H. Scholten, A. Sulis, H. van Delden, E. Gaddis,
H. Assaf.) In: Jakeman, T., Rizzoli, A., Voinov, A. & Chen (eds.) 2009. State
of the Art and Futures in Environmental Modelling and Software, Elsevier.
"Models of Natural and
Human Dynamics in Forest Landscapes: cross-site and cross-cultural
synthesis," (with Miguel F. Acevedo, Baird Callicott, Donald Lyons,
Jenny Palomino, Judith Rosales, Luz Delgado, Magdiel Ablan, Jacinto Davila,
Hirma Ramirez, Emilio Vilanova, Giorgio Tonella). Geoforum, Vol 39, 846-866, 2008.
"Biocomplexity
and Conservation of Biodiversity Hotspots: Three Case Studies from the
Americas" (with J. Baird Callicott,Miguel Acevedo, Luz Delgado, Ricardo Rozzi, and
Paul Harcombe). Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of
"Applying a Multi-Agent
Model to Evaluate Effects of Development Proposals and Growth Management
Policies on Suburban Sprawl"
(with E. Brooks, T. Cogdill, M. Acevedo and B. Callicott).
"Coupled Human and Natural Systems: A
Multi-Agent Based Approach," (with Miguel Acevedo, Baird Callicot,
Travis Cogdill, and Christopher Lindquist). Environmental Modelling and
Software, Vol, 22(5), 2007,
656-663.
"Assessing
physiological complexity," (with
"Multi-agent model of human
values and land-use change," (with Miguel Acevedo, Baird
Callicot and Travis Cogdill). Proceedings of the Fifth International IASTED
Conference on Modeling, Simulation and Optimization, ed. Giorgio Tonella,
pp 279-284. August 2005, Oranjestad,
"Biocomplexity in the Big Thicket," (with Baird Callicott, Miguel Acevedo, Pete Gunter, Paul Harcombe, and Christopher Lindquist). Ethics, Place, Environment: A Journal of Philosophy and Geography, Vol 9, No. 1, 21-45, 2006. Supported by NSF Biocomplexity in the Environment grant.
"Coupled Human and Natural Systems: A Multi-Agent Based Approach," (with
Miguel Acevedo, Baird Callicot, Travis Cogdill, and Christopher Lindquist). Complexity
and Integrated Resources Management, Transactions of the 2nd Biennial Meeting
of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs,
Pahl-Wostl, C., Schmidt, S., Rizzoli, A.E. and Jakeman, A.J. (eds), Osnabrueck,
Germany, 2004.
"Cell interaction in semi-Markov forest
landscape models," Proceedings
of the International Environmental Modeling and Software Society. Vol. 1, 2002, pp. 227-233 (with Miguel
Acevedo and Travis Cogdill).
Optimal Control
"Optimal buy/sell rules for correlated random
walks" Journal of Applied Probability, Vol 45, 33-44, 2008
(with Pieter Allaart).
"Pseudo-prophet inequalities in
average-optimal stopping," Sequential
Analysis, Vol 22, No. 3, 2003, pp. 233-239 (with Pieter Allaart).
"Optimal stopping rules for
directionally reinforced processes," Advances in Applied
Probability, Vol 33, No. 2, 2001, pp. 483-504 (with Pieter Allaart).
"Optimal
cut-off strategies in capacity expansion problems," Naval Research Logistics, Vol. 42, 1995, pp 1021-1039 (with J. R.
Weisinger).
"Utility functions which ensure
the adequacy of stationary strategies," Transactions of the American Mathematical Society,
Vol. 325, No 1, 1991, pp. 187-204
"The adequacy of universal strategies
in analytic gambling problems," Mathematics
of Operations Research, Vol. 16, No 1, 1991, pp. 21-41.
Random Probability Measures
"How to a
construct random probability measure," International Statistical Review, Vol 69, No. 1, 2001, pp. 153-167.
"Constructions of random distributions via
sequential barycenters," Annals
of Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 4, 1998, pp. 1242-1253 (with Theodore Hill).
"Constructing prior distributions with
trees of exchangeable processes," Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 73, 1998, pp.
113-133.
"Randomly generated distributions,"
Israel Journal of Mathematics, Vol.
91, 1995, pp. 215-237 (with R. D. Mauldin).
Other Applications and
Probability Models
“Analysis of Teller Service Times in
Retail Banks,” Travis Cogdill and Michael Monticino. Case Studies in Business, Industry and
Government Statistics, Vol 1 No. 1, 2007, pp. 15-25.
"Effects of Culture on Computer-Supported
International Collaborations," (with Kathleen Swigger and
Robert Brazile). International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, Vol 60, Issue 3, pp. 365-380, 2004.
"Web-Analysis:
Stripping away the hype," invited article IEEE Computer, December 1998.
"Directionally reinforced random walks," Advances in Mathematics, Vol. 117, No.
2, 1996, pp. 239-252 (with H. Weizsacker and R. D. Mauldin).
"A
survey of the search theory literature," Naval Research Logistics, Vol. 38, 1992, pp. 469-494 (with S. J.
Benkoski and J. R. Weisinger).
